Dictator Dan Andrews warns against third wave in Victoria

Which means it’ll probably happen.

Daniel Andrews in a conference today

  • If Victoria opens up too soon, a third and fourth wave may happen
  • Cautious about easing restrictions in time for Christmas
  • Andrews: “we let our frustration get the better of us there, and we kinda pretend this second wave is over when it really isn’t, and open up when there are too many cases out there, then all we are really doing is we’re kicking off a third wave and, potentially, a fourth.
  • Victoria’s Chief Health Officer said number of COVID cases has “stabilised” and is “is trending down”

It’ll probably happen

Each restrictive measure is foreshadowed by the last, usually in a press conference. It’s always “do X or Y will happen, and then we’ll have to do Z”. We do X, Y still happens and then Z is required. So far:

  • A return to Stage 3 restrictions for hotspot suburbs (X) lest it spreads across Melbourne (Y). But it spreads over Melbourne anyway, justifying the next action, in this case, stage 3 across all of Melbourne (Z)
  • The cycle repeats. Stage 3 for Melbourne at large (X) or cases will continue to grow (Y) resulting in mandatory masks to avoid a complete Stage 4 shut down (Z). But universal Stage 3 restrictions don’t work, resulting in mandatory masks
  • Wear the mask (X) or cases will dangerously rise (Y) necessitating Stage 4 (Z). We’re in Stage 4 anyway
  • Now the question is whether opening up will see a return to stage 4 due to an expected ‘third wave’ or if we just jump straight to a stage 5

The future is dependent on how long they can stretch this disruption out before they roll out the vaccine, which was always the plan.

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